Kenmore Undressed

Statistics: July in Kenmore, Lazy Days of Summer

The real estate market in Kenmore is ending in much the same way the weather has: cool and uninspiring. Please keep in mind that homes have been selling; however, the days on market for solds have risen to 113. Fully 26% of the sold homes are new construction. The good news/bad news statistic is that homes are selling at 92% of list price. This means qualified buyers are in a good negotiating position. It also means that sellers need to be more aggressive in their pricing. So here are some reports for you to ponder:

There is still a large inventory of homes in Kenmore. Many of these homes have been on the market well over 100 days.

The important thing to keep in mind regarding “pending” sales is that they represent the level of actual sales activity in a given month. The chart above illustrates that 18% of the available homes are in the process of selling. This percentage or absorption rate isn’t encouraging. We have 8 months of inventory on the market.

Now the chart above shows the total number of sales in the last 3 months. And the next chart shows closed sales in July:

As you can see, 17 sold homes sold this month. Not exactly a brisk market. I have no reason to believe that August will be more active. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace and with the election looming, I don’t expect the end of 2008 to be a banner year.

A New Bridge, Tolls: What’s the Impact on Kenmore?

Here is an artist’s concept of the new Evergreen Floating Bridge which is scheduled to open in 2014. It’s going to be a stunning structure with commuter lanes, 2 regular lanes, extra space on both sides for emergencies and (this is my favorite part) a lane for pedestrians and bicycles. Some estimates for it’s construction run in the $4 Billion range. It’s going to be one expensive project and the state legislature is asking the public how best to pay for it. It’s very likely that commuters will have to pay a toll to cross the bridge. The current 520 bridge was paid for with traditional tollbooths starting in 1963. The last toll was paid in 1979 and the tollbooths were removed. Quite a success story in it’s day. When the last toll was collected, four times as many vehicles were crossing the bridge each day, compared to when it first opened.

Fast forward to 2008. Things are far more complicated today. As the region has grown, the 520 Bridge has become a critical gateway for a huge number of commuters. Will these motorists gladly pay the proposed toll and continue to use the bridge? One negative outcome of the toll may be increased traffic through Kenmore as motorists attempt to avoid paying the toll. Anyone familiar with the 522 corridor through Bothell, Kenmore and Lake Forest Park (Bothell Way) knows that traffic is already a mess. The prospect of even more traffic congestion should be a wake-up call to us all.

Home Inspections - Gas-fired Furnaces are often neglected

I recently had my gas furnace serviced. I own an upgraded furnace with an air conditioner. I knew something was amiss when the darn thing kept firing up and was blowing air for long periods of time. As it turned out, I HAVE BEEN A BAD BOY! Even though I’m a Realtor and I’ve witnessed a huge number of home inspections where the furnaces are called out as an issue, I had not cleaned my furnace filters for a long time. Fortunately, my technician said I was lucky and no damage had been done. He serviced my furnace, charged me $200 then lectured me on the value of simply cleaning my furnace filters every couple of months………….yikes! After such a traumatic experience, I consulted Stephan Cancler, my favorite inspector (see my previous post) to find out just how big a problem furnaces pose to the average home owner. I told him about my recent experience. He gave me the “inspector’s look” and then offered his sage wisdom:

“I would say that 80% of homes that I inspect with gas-fired furnaces do not have regular maintenance performed. This is recommended annually to keep the furnace running efficiently and safely. There are literally dozens of different manufacturers, and although the function is similar, all are not created with the same quality.”

THE PICTURE ABOVE IS A FURNACE WITH A VERY DIRTY FILTER

“The simplest form of maintenance that a home owner can perform is to change the filter(s) regularly. The filter helps to clean the household air and protects the heat exchanger from contamination. When the filter is not changed (or cleaned) regularly this will cause the furnace to run inefficiently, thus not providing adequate heat due to lack of proper air flow. This condition will also cause the furnace to short-cycle, causing stress to the heat exchanger, which can effectively shorten the life span of the furnace.

The pictures above show a corroded furnace that has seen better days. He continues: “A service professional will clean the blower, contact points, oil moving parts, balance the air-to gas mix, change the filter and check for leaks. If there is a crack in the heat exchanger, carbon monoxide can leak into the heat ducts, a potentially deadly situation for the home’s occupants. Gas furnaces have 20 year life span and if neglected, this life can be shortened considerably. I have seen units that have failed in less than ten years. I have failed several furnaces myself due to cracks I found in the heat exchanger either from age, lack of maintenance or inferior quality. I recommend for homeowners who are putting their homes on the market to have the furnaced serviced and to install a clean filter.”

I’d like to thank Stephan for sharing his extensive knowledge regarding gas furnaces. It’s amazing how homeowners (all of us) have a tendency to ignore basic maintenance issues with our homes. Spending just a few moments every month and a relatively minimal amount of money every couple of years can literally save us thousands of dollars in the long run.

Home Inspections Series - Finding the Right Inspector

In an earlier post I focused-in on one of my favorite home inspectors, Stephan Cancler. Whenever I’m working with buyers, I always recommend that they contact him, BUT, I also tell my clients that they should interview more than one professional and then decide whom they will use. This process is no different than hiring a roofing contractor, painter, or carpenter. So where do you go to find inspectors? Below are several large franchise-type inspection websites. Just click on them to find out more about the companies. Also, the sites have a lot of interesting consumer information:

As I mentioned above, these are but a few inspection companies that are well-known in the area.

Kenmore WA Open Houses - July 26th & 27th

Just click on the picture above to see the open houses this weekend. You’ll note that the majority of homes open are in the Shadow Creek subdivision off of 80th Ave NE. There are 17 homes available in this community. I have provided the names of the listing agents; however, if you have any questions regarding these or any other listings in Kenmore, please don’t hesitate to contact me at 206.713.2102 or jlupori@comcast.net

The Home Library: A Realtor’s Observation

One of the fringe benefits of being a real estate agent is previewing hundreds if not thousands of homes. Often, we never meet the owners so we get to wander in homes and imagine who the owners might be. We agents are a curious bunch and we are careful observers of human nature. We also see into the “inner” life of a family by seeing all the possessions in their house. Think about this: I can ascertain a lot about people by what’s in their closet. Nice suits, must be a professional or office worker; She likes Elvis, check out the collection of Elvis T-shirts. You get the picture! Also, I can tell if someone is from the Middle East, or India, or Korea or Greece by the aromas that perfume the house. Sometimes I have to fight the urge to raid the refrigerator.

The Seattle area is considered one of the most well-read areas in the United States. I’m not sure this is true. What I do know is that a home library is an amazing portal into the mind of a homeowner. Think about it, books are brain food (or not). If you look over the books, it doesn’t take long to figure out the owner’s politics, religious affiliations, travel preferences, cultural interests, art tastes and culinary skills. It’s fascinating and fun to see what people read.

What’s truly amazing is how many homes don’t have libraries. I believe books have been replaced by DVD’s, video games, TV and the internet. I, too spend a good deal of time in front of the TV and internet but, I’m also one of those people who is always reading a book (or two, or three). So here are some of the books I’ve read recently:

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I hope you all have an opportunity to get some reading done this summer either at home or on vacation. Does anyone have a favorite book to recommend?

Sold Homes in Kenmore: Statistics Lite

One of my neighbors asked me how the real estate market is doing in Kenmore. He asked, “Is anything selling these days?” There was a bit of anxiety in his voice. I could tell he had been listening to the media a little too much. I told him that houses aren’t exactly flying off the shelf as was the case in 2005 & 2006 but homes are selling. It’s taking longer to sell a home these days. Another critical factor is that the number of potential buyers has dropped by 30%. My contacts in the lending industry tell me that it’s far more difficult to qualify for a home loan today. 

Of course, I asked him if he intended on moving in the near future. “No, we like it here and unless I get a job in Hawaii or something, we’re not going anywhere.” I liked his answer because our neighborhood is only 3 years old. I was hoping we would be neighbors for many years to come!

So, what about sold homes in Kenmore? Today I had a chance to crunch some numbers. Since the beginning of 2008:

• A total of 87 homes have sold in Kenmore
• 25% of the homes sold for under $400,000
• 43% of the homes were built since the year 2000
• The average days-on-market are 163; however, this number is skewed a bit high because of the large number of newer homes on the market
• Here’s a critical number: the average sale price vs list price is 93%. This means that home prices have softened

The point I’d like to make here is that there has been a lot of hype and mis-information about the world of real estate over the last 10 years. A lot of Americans are in a world of hurt right now because they purchased a home that they simply couldn’t afford. We are going to feel the affects of this situation through lower home values, tougher underwriting standards and a slower market. My advice to you is quit listening to the “talking heads” on TV if you want to understand your local real estate market. Believe it or not, there are real professionals called real estate agents who know more than they do.

Are We Living Too Large?

This was the first home I owned. My wife and I lived in this cute little house in Shoreline, WA for 16 years! It was a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 860 square foot home. Our current home in Kenmore, WA has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and is 2440 square feet. I’ve thought a lot about the implications of owning a larger home. I’m not the only one……

Matt Thompson raises important questions in his most recent blog post on www.gigharborundressed.com, entitled Size matters…but bigger isn’t always better. He says: “Our society seems to be obsessed with BIG. Cars are getting BIGGER. Take out meals are getting BIGGER. Prices are getting BIGGER. And in Gig Harbor, houses seem to be getting BIGGER.”

“In a quick search of new construction homes in Gig Harbor (homes built in ‘08), there are currently 67 homes for sale with a median size of 3214 square feet. Looking at home SALES in Gig Harbor (any single family home that has sold thus far in ‘08), the median size is 2400 square feet.”

The growing cost of basic goods and services has increased the pressure American families are feeling, especially those who own a large house. Bigger houses use more energy and are more expensive to maintain. Many of these homes have been built in the suburbs and exurbia (those communities outside the suburbs) which increases commuting distances and fuel costs. It’s a complicated situation.

As a real estate professional, I see a huge variety of homes: from 700 square foot shacks to 15,000 square foot mansions. I sometimes wonder why anyone needs a huge house, no matter how wealthy the family. The fact is, the American family is 1/2 the size it was a generation ago and our houses have doubled in size. This is not a sustainable model. Sooner or later we will be forced to face the fact that we’ve overbuilt our homes and neighborhoods.

Let me end by saying that my little house in Shoreline was not a shining example of energy efficiency. It took years of remodeling to modernize our house. Our new home is far more efficient and comfortable. It would be nice if builders offered more energy efficient water heaters, solar panels and built with eco-friendly products. This may happen someday. For now, most families will focus on size as the measure of success.

For a thought provoking look at how to become more “sustainable” check out the British program “Outrageous Wasters.” For some of you it will seem a bit extreme, but our friends across the pond are wrestling with the same issues we are.

Mr. Freeze, The Financial Curmudgeon - America’s Social Disease

The Financial Curmudgeon was listening to the “financial experts” talking last week about all of the bank failures, the volatile Stock Market and a myriad of other problems facing the average American family. Indeed, we are living in challenging times. It reminds me of Venice in the 16th & 17th Centuries. At that time Venice experienced an utter collapse of its world trade domination as the  New World began to transform world markets. The Venetians became complacent and so have we.  

Dan Catts, a contributor to flickr.com, provided this picture of an original mortgage. He writes: “When we moved into the house we found a box with a whole bunch of documents in. Someone else has numbered them all and unfortunately number 2 is the earliest one we have.”

In today’s world of electronic documents, faxes, pdf files, email, etc., we don’t often reflect on the fact that there are actual documents backing up financial transactions. These documents represent promises and obligations to pay someone back. It’s almost as if we’ve forgotten that these papers have tangible meaning and NOT paying them back results in consequences. Yes, Virginia, there really is a debt out there! I don’t know about you, but the current mortgage/credit crisis is but a reflection of how reckless borrowers (AND LENDERS) have become regarding lending and taking on debt. To me, it’s a a sort of social disease here in America: purchasing too many things without having the money in the bank to pay for them; believing that somehow one doesn’t need an adequate income to qualify for a loan; never saving for a rainy day; carrying 5 or more credit cards with huge balances and wondering why they can’t ”get ahead.” The largest and most destructive symptom of this disease is our belief that the world is going to stop so we can get off. In the long term, Venice never recovered from the huge economic shifts that occurred and I have a sense that Americans are going to experience a decline in their standard of living, perhaps not as dramatic as Venice, but changes nevertheless.

So here’s what Mr. Freeze, the Financial Curmudgeon, suggests: Take a deep breath, pull out all your debt “documents” (credit card contracts, mortgage, bills, everything) and start pondering just how many people you owe. Then make a plan to eliminate as many of these debts as possible. Mr. Freeze has a simple way to start: buy yourself a little notebook and start writing down every single penny you spend every day for 1 month. By doing this you’ll discover exactly what all your unnecessary purchases are (YES, YOU HAVE THEM). Isolate those monies and start paying off your bills. Mr. Freeze, the Financial Curmudgeon promises to have more tips in the near future. 

How I Spent My Sunday Morning: The Bicycling Realtor

Meet your intrepid bicycling adventurers, Virginia my wife and yours truly, James the Bicycling Realtor:

Virginia and I have been tandem bicycling since 1990 and there’s nothing we enjoy more than taking a ride on the bike from our home in Kenmore and doing what we call the mezzo-lake ride: we start in Kenmore, head south to the Evergreen Point Floating Bridge and then travel north back to Kenmore. This morning we took off at around 8:00 and got back home at 12:00. We’ve done this ride numerous times and there is always some surprise along the way. So what follows are photos of our short adventure. What you’re going to find is that bicycling is the perfect way to experience communities in a very intimate way. As a Realtor, it’s refreshing to look at homes from a bike. One can see how the house relates to the yard and the street. You can smell the neighborhood and hear the sounds. All-too-often we pass through other peoples’ neighborhoods in our cars hardly taking notice of how things fit together. We don’t have a chance to smile at an owner working in the front yard. We pass through anonymously.

At the intersecton of State Highway 522 and 80th Ave. NE (1 mile south of our home) there has been a huge construction project to upgrade the road. It really is amazing to see the size of this project.

We then head east on the Burke-Gilman Trail to Wayne Public Golf Course and then travel south into Juanita:

We continue south (uphill) to Downtown Kirkland. On the we pass by a wildlife refuge on Lake Washington:

Our big surprise today was reaching Downtown Kirkland and bumping into a huge car show. Check these beauties out:

Fortunately, the only fatality we witnessed today was the Wicked Witch of the West. Poor gal. After drooling over some wonderful cars we continued on our way.

From Kirkland, we head bicycle up an unpleasant hill into Downtown Bellevue.

Virginia loves this portion of the ride because we pass by one of the areas most elegant malls: Bellevue Square. Too bad we didn’t have a chance to stop today (ya, right!!). We continue through Bellevue and finally reach one of the best part of the ride: the I-90 floating bridge. The I-90 path starts in the Bellevue neighborhood of Enatai:

We head west onto Mercer Island and then reach the west point of the Evergreen Point Floating Bridge. About 2 miles across, this is a wonderfully refreshing stretch of road. We are fortunate to have a bike lane on such a unique stretch of road.

At the west end of the bridge the auto traffic enters the Mt. Baker Tunnel which heads into Downtown Seattle. We continue by heading north on our way back home. We head along Lake Washington Blvd. through the neighborhoods of Leschi, Madrona, Madison and then hook over through the Seattle Aboretum and then over the Montlake Bridge.

It’s then past Husky Stadium at the University of Washington where Virginia must give the mascot a hug:

We usually stop at University Village for a coffee at Starbucks. University Village is one of the most charming shopping centers in the area.

After our caffene fix, we head north on 25th Avenue NE through such neighborhoods as Bryant, Ravenna, Lake City, Lake Forest Park and finally we’re back home in Kenmore.

Today was perfect for a bicycle ride. The weather was clear and comfortable. We didn’t encounter too much traffic on either the Burke-Gilman Trail or on the roads. Over the years, Virginia and I have logged literally thousands of miles on our tandem. It’s one of the most powerful and enjoyable way to enjoy bicycling together.