Absorption Rates May 2009 – Selling a Home is Still Challenging
We are almost half way through 2009 and home sales remain tepid at best. The real estate industry has been crowing that sales are up and “it’s a great time to buy a home.” Certainly, there has been a mini perfect storm of factors that have given first-time home buyers a window of opportunity: declining prices, low interest rates and the $8000 tax credit; however, the sales volume is not exactly thrilling. Also, local real estate gurus have suggested that the increase in “net pending sales” reflects a recovering market. Well, let’s take a look at some graphs compiled by Alan Pope and Associates that illustrate something quite different:
PUGET SOUND ABSORPTION RATES
Click on the graph for a larger view
Click on the graph for a larger view
There was no increase in the Absorption rate from April to May this year in the 19 County MLS. Basically, if you put your house on the market last month you had about a 16.4% chance to sell your home.
KING COUNTY ABSORPTION RATE
Click on the graph for a larger view
Click on the graph for a larger view
King County saw a minuscule increase in pending sales (.6% increase) from 20.1% to 20.7%.
SNOHOMISH COUNTY ABSORPTION RATES
Click on the graph for a larger view
Click on the graph for a larger view
The Snohomish County absorption rate showed little increase between April and May. Sellers had about a 20% chance to sell their home last month.
Basically, I’m not seeing the silver lining in the market….not yet.
