The Local Real Estate Market – Let’s Talk About Perspective
It All Depends on Your Perspective
This last week there have been a huge number statistics, articles and press releases regarding the local real estate market: It’s UP! It’s Down! It’s Good! It’s Bad! It’s Coming Back! Inventories are down! Pending Sales Are Up! Upsurge in Sales! Down turn in prices!!!!! Whew…………..all of the opinions are making me dizzy. Well, I think a picture (in this case a graph) is worth a 1000 words. Let’s take a look at what the numbers tell us:
1 Year Sales Perspective
Click on the graph for a larger view
Wow, since the dismal days of January, the real estate market (comprised of the 19 counties in our MLS) has been doing better. Sales have continued to rise from 2160 closed sales in January to 5096 last month (June). It is encouraging to see the sales figures rise. Nothing wrong with that. Now, let’s look at a bigger picture:
5 Year Sales Perspective
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From a longer range perspective, this graph should sober-up anyone who feels the real estate market is in a “definite upsurge,” as was suggested in the most recent NWMLS News Release. Consider these numbers:
- June 2009 – 5096 closed sales
- June 2008 – 5449 closed sales
- June 2007 – 8086 closed sales
- June 2006 – 9967 closed sales
- June 2005 – 11,023 closed sales
My point is not to be pessimistic about the local real estate market. Far from it. I think it’s important to bring a sense of reality to the discussion. In the last couple of years I’ve noticed an almost bi-polar obscession with the real estate market: it’s either an “everything is coming up roses” over-selling of the market place or “end-of-the-world” scenarios by the main stream media (MSM) and the local “real estate gurus.” Sure, if your particular town or neighborhood has had some sales in the last several months, then times are good. It’s a natural reaction. But what we are experiencing in the Northwest is, at best, a hollow market. Prices are down, sales are anemic and transactions have become more difficult. I believe the fear of an influx of foreclosure properties, a soft job market and other major, global financial problems will have a strangle-hold on home sales well into the future.
Remember, it’s all a matter of your perspective. This is why it’s more critical than ever to have a sense of what your local market is doing rather than listen to all of the “stuff” coming out of the media. If you want to understand the market, hire a Realtor® who knows the area in which you’re shopping or selling. This is why I write about Kenmore. I live here and I make it my business to understand the value of real property here.
