Kenmore Undressed

Let the Games Begin: Kenmore Home Sales Commence in 2009

Kenmore maintained a large inventory of single family homes in 2008. On any give day there were over 200 homes for sale; however, this changed in November and December. Today the inventory has dropped quite a bit as there are 149 active listings:

SNAPSHOT OF ACTIVE LISTINGS TODAY

The majority of homes are between $350,000 and $550,000. The average days-on-market are a little over 3 months. I’ve noticed that a lot of resale homes have dropped out of the game since November. We may see them return as Spring approaches (and the sellers sober-up about pricing). Even so, 44% of listings have experienced price reductions, some being significant. It’s also interesting to note that almost 35% of the homes for sale today are new construction.

PENDING SALES - LARGE % OF SHORT SALES

The good news is that houses are selling in Kenmore. The bad news is that 58% of the pending sales today are SHORT SALES. For those of you unfamiliar with the process of short selling a home, I highly recommend you read: How To Do a Shortsale to better understand the process. The Wikipedia definition is helpful:

In real estate, a short sale is a sale of real estate in which the proceeds from the sale fall short of the balance owed on a loan secured by the property sold. In a short sale, the bank or mortgage lender agrees to discount a loan balance due to an economic or financial hardship on the part of the mortgagor.

We are living in some extremely challenging times. If you, members of your family or your friends feel that they are having trouble making their mortgage payments, it is imperative that you/they seek the advice of an attorney to determine if a short sale is your best course of action. There are some serious consequences as a result of selling your home short, most of which are negative: Tax exposure, Credit Damage, Legal Problems and a myriad of other issues. Although one might be tempted to choose this course, there may be better alternatives. I highly recommend you contact the law offices of Dale J. Galvin of Galvin Realty Law Group with your questions. Click on the picture below for more information about Dale and his services:

Only time will tell if Barack Obama’s new administration will have a positive influence on the real estate market. Many of the economists I’ve been listening to (cranky folk they are!) feel that we’re in for a tough 2009. I’d like to make this point in spite of all the bad news: If you are ready to buy a home, you need to do your homework. Assemble a team of professionals (e.g. mortgage lender, real estate agent, accountant and attorney) and proceed with confidence!

Utterly Confused Courtsey of inju

Kenmore, WA Home Sales: Almost-End-of-2008 Recap

I’ve broken out the 2008 Kenmore, WA home sale statistics into some interesting categories so you can get a sense of how the housing market has performed this year. I realize we don’t have the year-end numbers yet, but a number of my friends and neighbors have been asking me if the market is as bad as the media says it is. The following charts might put some things in perspective. You can see larger versions of the charts if you click on them:

SALES BY VOLUME - MEANING THE TOTAL VALUE OF GOODS SOLD

The charts below show a steady drop in the total sales revenue generated in the last several years. Between 2006 and 2007 there was a 2.5% change in sales revenue; however, we saw a -48% drop between 2007 and 2008.

2008

2006-2008

HOME PRICES

This is probably the category of statistics that’s the most difficult to interpret. If you look at the three-year chart it’s a crazy zig-zag of prices. Basically, the largest drop in price actually happened in 2006-2007. We’ve basically seen a leveling-off in prices in 2008. This is due, in large part, to the small number of sales.

2008

2006-2008

UNITS SOLD

These numbers speak for themselves. We started out 2008 with about 50% fewer sales and this trend continued throughout the whole year.

2008

UNITS SOLD 2006-2008

DAYS ON MARKET

The number of days it took to sell a home in Kenmore increased for most of the year. Things have leveled-off the last several months.

2008

DAYS ON MARKET 2006-2008

Once again, the home sale numbers for Kenmore are sobering. This year I observed a reluctance of sellers to accept the deteriorating market prices. As a result, through most of the first half of the year, homes were languishing on the market. It was only after the real bad financial news hit in August-September that prices started to drop or sellers took their homes off the market. In the last several months the number of active single-family-homes dropped from over 200 closer to 170. Not a great drop, but it was an adjustment that took far to long to occur.

All-in-all, the Kenmore housing market reflects what’s going on in many cities in the Northwest. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in 2009. Unless the Credit markets thaw, I fear more of the same.

Real Estate Sobriety or Facing the Five Stages of Grief

THE FIVE STAGES OF GRIEF

DENIAL, ANGER, BARGAINING, DEPRESSION, ACCEPTANCE

A little over a year ago I attended a “team meeting” at the Keller Williams Realty office where I hung my license. I remember that day clearly because there were a lot of angry and frustrated agents who were having trouble selling houses. What, they wondered, was wrong? At that time I think we all had a sense that something had shifted out there in the world, we just did not know exactly what it was. Our broker and one of our more “market savvy” colleagues had some unsettling news: Experts were saying that serious problems existed with the sub-prime markets, that something was terribly wrong with mortgage backed securities, and economists had concerns the housing bubble was going to burst………

Needless to say, four of the  five stages of grief were expressed in that single meeting. There were a lot of angry and scared agents who simply could not believe the world was going to change (big time denial). Now that 2008 is quickly coming to an end, it seems that there are a lot of other things to grieve about:

• Revelations that those in charge of the financial markets have engaged in de facto fraud for many years. Even Alan Greenspan was shocked!
• Confessions by elected officials at the highest levels of government that they have deceived the American people regarding torture, wire-tapping, war and a myriad of other things.
• The realization that literally trillions of dollars have evaporated from our 401k’s, pension funds, stock portfolios, etc.
• Facing the ugly fact  that some of our most cherished and powerful institutions have squandered wealth by overpaying executives, neglecting research and development and focusing on the short-term.
• Watching corporate America ask for hundreds of billions of dollars in aid from the federal government
• Witnessing a tangible lowering of our standard of living, stagnating wages and the inevitable “class warfare” and finger pointing that results when people feel betrayed.
• And let’s not forget the shrinking equity in our homes and our inability to sell them or, worse yet, the huge number of foreclosures and bankruptcies looming on the horizon.

Not long ago, I finally realized that almost every real estate agent I know, including myself, is grieving about our industry. Oh, there are some Realtors who maintain the optimistic position that “things will get better.” Today, I even read a blog post entitled “Grow Where You are Planted” intended, I’m sure, to help us all get through these tough times.

I hate to say it, but this sort of thinking has limited value when one confronts the brutal facts: housing prices in our area continue to drop; lower mortgage interest rates will not affect home sales significantly; credit remains virtually frozen and there are a huge number of real estate agents who are leaving the business. In today’s Seattle PI article entitled “Property prices to rebound in ‘009, some brokers say,” some of these brutal facts are confirmed. The optimists believe we will see some recovery in the housing markets by the Spring of 2009; however, the vast majority of experts believe the Northwest is in for a long, slow recovery.

I would like my readers to know that I am still an active, practicing Realtor/real estate agent. Just for good measure you should know that I’m also an Associate Broker (wow!!!). I have been writing Kenmore Undressed.com since April and, during that time, I have become far more observant of the local housing statistics and I’m more involved in my community than ever before. I consider myself to be a true expert in residential real estate in Kenmore, WA. Let me also say that I’M SOBER ABOUT THE CURRENT REAL ESTATE MARKET. I make it my job to know what’s real and what’s not. I think I’ve crossed over from a sense of DEPRESSION and I’ve ACCEPTED the way things are. The world has become a far more complicated place these days, but I’m ready to face the challenges. I wish the same for you.

Five Stages Photo courtesy of

COCOMARIPOSA - http://www.flickr.com/photos/8463160@N08/

Snow + Cold Weather x Seattlites = The Ultimate Weather Wimps

Yes, the picture above should give you an idea of how much snow it takes to TOTALLY PARALYZE a major metropolitan area: Seattle. You can’t imagine how many calls I’ve received from friends around the country who simply can’t believe what a bunch of weather wimps we are here in the Northwest. I won’t even dignify them by repeating the dispariging things they say. Heck, almost made me cry!

Seriously, the Seattle area is NOT set up to deal with snow. The topography is quite hilly and we are subject to a complex array of wind conditions and bodies of water. Not only do we receive cold wet winds off the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound, but we also get blasted by uber-freezing gusts from Canada. When the winds and moisture come together as snow, the locals head indoors and hibernate. What’s more, there are virtually no snow plows and the roads are rarely sanded (never salted). If you must drive in these conditions, you’re taking your life into your own hands. I don’t recommend it.

Today I had to brave the frozen roads and hills of Kenmore to mail Christmas Cards and pick up some gifts for my favorite person (the wife!!!). She owes me BIG TIME! But, before heading out I had to shovel snow from the driveway,  something I haven’t done in many, many years (since 1990!). I didn’t do too badly:

Old Technology Might Just Work! Photo of the Day!

I think we need something like this rig to get us around for the next week! My neighborhood here in Kenmore is a mess with all the snow.

I Love Snow………….EXCEPT IN THE SEATTLE AREA…YUCK

Over on Gigharborundressed.com my esteemed colleague, Matt Thompson, mentions that he LOVES snow. It’s interesting that we both grew up in Utah: Matt in Park City and I in Layton/Salt Lake City. Funny thing is, I love snow as well……………….BUT I ABSOLUTELY HATE WHEN IT SNOWS IN THE SEATTLE AREA!!!! Whew……glad I got that off my chest. Even so, it sure is pretty:

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

I took these pictures at the University this morning after first taking friends to SeaTac Airport and then dropping my wife off at work (at the UW). The traffic was literally insane! I’m surprised anyone survived out there!

MY NEIGHORHOOD IN KENMORE (BRIDLE PATH)

As you can see, my neighborhood is blanketed in a few inches of fluffy snow. Pretty but I hate it! I can’t wait until the weather returns to “normal.”

Oh, there is one creature that had the good sense to stay in today:

MY CAT

Staying Informed in Kenmore: A Short List of Resources

Kenmore Washington isn’t the largest town in the Seattle Area. In fact, it’s a small town of around 20,000 residents that lies at the epicenter of several large geographic and economic regions (Bellevue, Bothell and Everett. We lie at the crossroads of two major freeways (I-5 & I405). We are dominated by SR 522 which is both a life line and, due to a lot of construction a real hassle. We have a large private college (Bastyr University) and almost 3000 businesses. Basically, there’s a lot going on here. So here are my favorite resources to find out what’s going on in Kenmore:

Kenmore Newsletter - Published for Residents and Available on-line @ www.cityofkenmore.com

Click on the picture for a full version of the current edition…..

This is an excellent publication with articles that cover large city projects, budgets, public safety announcements and, in the current issue, an interesting article about CROWS. For those of you who don’t live here, we have an enormous population of crows in Kenmore. Some mornings I feel like an actor in Alfred Hitchcock’s movie “The Birds” as the sky fills with the noisy black devils!!!!

City of Kenmore website - www.cityofkenmore.com

Click on the picture to link directly to the website………

The city’s website includes a huge amount of information about the numerous services and activities in Kenmore. It’s not an overly-exciting website but it gets the job done.

Kenmoreblog.net

Click on the picture below to link directly to the website……………

Kenmoreblog.net features up-to-date articles about Kenmore in a concise, professional manner. I have a link directly to this excellent on-line source.

Kenmore-Reporter - Delivered to Kenmore residents and available on-line @ http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/north_king/bkn/

Click on the picture to link directly to the website…………………..

The Bothell-Reporter/Kenmore-Reporter is more of a classic community paper with news, sports, opinion and lifestyle sections. Not a bad publication.

The Northshore Fire Department, Part 1: Dedicated to Serving the Public Good

It’s the worst nightmare possible: You wake up in the middle of the night. The smoke and sharp burning smell is suffocating. The intense heat and flames are lashing at you like a hungry pack of predators. You realize your house is on fire. Your instincts tell you to flee but you’re transfixed by the fire and paralyzed with the fear that you’re not getting out alive………………………………..

Over the years, as a real estate agent, I’ve had numerous buyers express all sorts of fears about homes; the most common of which is: “Could this house burn down?” This comes up when we’re having a home inspected and the house has an ancient electrical system or a old dingy furnace. It is only natural that people get a little nervous. During one inspection my clients were being particularly paranoid and, half in jest, their inspector asked, “When was the last time you heard of a house burning down?” Do you know the answer?

Well, last week I had the pleasure to meet Fire Chief Tom Weathers at the Northshore Fire Department (Station 51) to talk about the world of emergency preparedness and to pose the same question to him. He answered it this way: “Not very often, but it’s interesting that during difficult economic times, the risk of fires rises.” He went on to explain that when money is tight, homeowners tend to neglect preventative maintenance (furnaces, fireplaces, etc.) or they try to economize by using the fireplace/wood burning stove or even space heaters which increases the possibility of a fire. One of the worst case scenarios is the use of a barbecue indoors during power outages. This was only one of the many subjects Chief Weathers and I talked about.

The residents of Kenmore are extremely fortunate to have Station 51 right here at the heart of our town. In 1977 Station 51 was opened on 73rd Ave NE, replacing the small, original station (opened on August 14, 1948 on 67th Ave NE, just off Bothell Way). The new station featured eight apparatus bays, meeting room, offices and living quarters plus outdoor training space and a training tower. Today, Chief Weathers and his team are designing a new fire station to be built across the street by the year 2010. He described this as an extremely complex project. “We’re trying to build the ‘perfect fire station’ that will maintain its utility until the year 2060.” He then explained how difficult it is to plan a building that will meet all the needs of a fire station in the 21st Century. “There are training and design facilities, fire truck bays, living quarters, public art and proactive considerations for future solar power.”

Chief Weathers is one of those executives who seems very comfortable in his own skin. He’s extremely knowledgeable about all the dimensions of his position and it was easy to see why he’s the kind of guy you want around in an emergency. When I spoke with a couple of his crew they expressed a high degree of respect for him. What amazed was his command of so many different disciplines. Think about it. Running a fire department requires a deep knowledge of emergency response. This alone is a subject one could spend a lifetime learning. Then add in facilities, personnel and labor relations, city/county issues, training, angry residents and, my favorite, shopping for fire engines!!!! 

After our chat, Chief Weathers let me take some pictures of their newest fire truck which is specially designed as a rescue vehicle. One of the firemen described it as a tool shop on wheels. This particular fire truck has a huge lighting system for evening rescues. The staff is very proud of this truck.

Being a fireman/woman is one of the most sought-after jobs in the world. Really! To become a fire fighter is another thing altogether. By its nature, it’s a dangerous job. Its a job that requires a huge number of  skill-sets and physical strength. It requires individuals who are selfless and effective during disasters and yet, slighty detached from some really ugly realities. To be effective, firefighters are in a perpetual state of training and preparation. The pictures below show a training session in which the staff is learning about a new system to stabilize an overturned vehicle to help with a rescue:

In the future, I hope to show you more of the interesting and important things going on at the Northshore Fire Department.

Excessive Costs of the New Kenmore City Hall? Express Your Opinion to the City Council

In my November 6th post, I wrote that the development company for the future Kenmore Village  has asked for a one-year extension on the first phase of the project due to global financial pressures. It seems that these uncertain times have also focused attention on the New Kenmore City Hall. In today’s edition of the on-line Kenmore Reporter, a number of Kenmore residents expressed concerns regarding both the scope and cost of the project. Among these concerns are:

• Hire an independent, unbiased firm to determine which features could be eliminated that would reduce costs.

• Reduce the size of the building to 16,000 square feet, yet retaining sufficient space to accommodate city employees and permit citizens to conduct business in an efficient facility.

• Remove plans for an underground parking facility.

• Postpone the construction of city hall until funds become available without creating debt. There is no emergency in this project, a delay may be in the best interest of our citizens.

• Reject any proposal that requires funding by bond. In the event a bond is considered, submit it to a vote of the people.

You can review the complete letter to the editor by clicking on this link: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/north_king/bkn/opinion/34612449.html

The authors of this letter to the editor are asking Kenmore residents to contact the City Council to express opinions or concerns regarding the negative financial exposure of this project. If you wish to contact the council simply click on the picture below. This will take you to the city directory:

Previewing in the Inglewood/Finn Hill Neighborhood of Kenmore: WHY?

I was out previewing properties in a very pleasant neighborhood in Kenmore. It’s commonly known as the Inglewood/Finn Hill area. It’s a mix of new and old houses and has a great location. I was in the mood to look at newer homes today, so I spent most of my time wandering through some nice places (average prices were $600,000 - $900,000). It’s a dirty job, but some-body’s got to do it. For more information about this neighborhood, just click on picture above.

One of the most important things a real estate agent must do is preview properties. The dirty little secret  is that most agents spend very little time actually going out and physically examining the inventory. I got into a heated debate with one of my colleagues recently. I asked him how he comes up with a pricing strategy for a seller when doing a market analysis. His answer was, “I examine the active, pending and sold comparable properties close-by the subject. I then analyse the different features of these homes and arrive at a price.”

Then I asked: “How do you do all of this?”

His answer: “I do it on the computer using the multiple listing service!”

I then asked: “Do you go out and physically examine the comparables.”

He responded (a little annoyed): “No, why should I? I can get all of the information from the Internet.”

I said: “No, you can’t.”

Then the argument started. He couldn’t quite understand that an agent worth his/her salt KNOWS the inventory in that agent’s particular market. Unfortunately, because of the Internet, many agents (and consumers) consider themselves experts in property values. Worse yet, they believe they know property values in towns and neighborhoods they hardly ever visit.

Let me be clear, there is a legitimate amount of research an agent can do via the Multiple and through other Internet sources, BUT a true professional must get out there and be ONE with the inventory. So the next time you’re an agent who claims to be a “neighborhood expert,” him/her them how she goes about analyzing the market you’re interested in. Better yet, ask her about an area totally out of the area to see if they’re an “expert” there as well. In today’s market it is very important to work with a committed, professional agent who truly knows the lay of the land. 

Monopoly Pic by vinduhl