Kenmore Undressed

The October Market in Kenmore Remains Lethargic: An Excellent Buyer’s Market

As we approach the end of October, I wanted to take a quick look at the numbers to see if sales have picked up. Here in Kenmore, things continue to be lethargic. One positive movement is a net loss in current active listings. We had over 200 last month. We now have 181:

What I’m about to write  should interest all of you potential buyers out there. Judging from the pending and sold properties, there has been immense downward pressure on prices.

• There are 33 pending sales at this time. These homes are PENDING at 92% of their original list price. On average they have been on the market for six months.
• 10 homes have sold in Kenmore since the beginning of October. These homes have sold at 93% of their original list price. Average days-on-market are are well over six months.

As we approach 2009 I would advise potential buyers to start planning with a qualified, thoughtful lender. Even though there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, I believe buyers will have the advantage for many months to come.

Clean and Sober: September Statistics and Some Personal Thoughts About the Market

You know the saying: “Admitting you have a problem is the first step in solving it.” Well, in the Pacific Northwest section of the Seattle Sunday Times (Oct. 12th) the CEO of Windermere Real Estate Services, in a moment of perfect clarity, called it like it is. Quoting a blog post of one of his agents he wrote: TAKE YOUR HOME OFF THE MARKET (click the text for a larger view).

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Mr. Woods has spoken words of wisdom in a market place drunk on greed and delusion. It’s time to sober up and come clean.  Right now, lots of sellers need to sit down and ponder their motivation for selling. If it isn’t absolutely necessary to move, then consider staying put. How simple can it be? Anyone following the news knows how crazy things are right now. It’s time to start thinking clearly about life’s fundamentals and make decisions based on a long time perspective. There’s nothing new in this.

Here are the numbers for September sales of single family homes in King Co. (click on the picture)

Overall, it’s not the end of the world. Sales in King Co. dropped 23% from last September but HOUSES ARE SELLING. Keep in mind that in order to sell a home, it must be “dressed for success,” marketed well and priced appropriately. In September, homes sold for 7% less than a year ago. If you’re not willing to pay the price to enter the market at this time, don’t. I believe that after the national election and after the banks and government have worked through the financial crisis (this may take several months), we may see the credit markets loosen up and start lending again. Until then, relax, enjoy your home and think about a better future.

City-data.com - Get to know your favorite city

There are a huge number of statistical resources on the internet. One can literally spend hours pouring over population trends, crime stats, housing prices, you name it. But, there are only so many hours in the day. So where does one find a site that encapsulates data in a coherent and concise way? I think www.city-data.com is an excellent resource. If you’re a resident in Iowa and want to find out about Kenmore, WA because your employer is relocating you, here are some of the interesting statistics you can review:Some of the other very interesting breakdowns include: number of government employees, building permits, crime statistics, educational attainment…..whew, it goes on and on. The only thing I’d like you to keep in mind is that some of the statistics aren’t current (this is not uncommon because it takes a long time to assemble some data). But, go ahead and look through this website. You may learn something for your next cocktail party

Reality Check: A Short, Sharp Analysis of the Local Real Estate Market

I like this picture. A nice juicy brain, suspended in a clear liquid cocoon. Safe, locked in time; unchanging. It’s emblematic of the obsolete mentality of both the Public and the Real Estate Industry:  ”PUT YOUR BRAIN IN A JAR. THERE’S NO NEED TO THINK ABOUT THE PROCESS BECAUSE WE’VE ALWAYS DONE THINGS THE SAME WAY!” As a Realtor (c), I spend a lot of time pondering the market to discover the best way to solve my clients’ challenges. After taking a few moments to look at the current market in Kenmore (my home town) I’m convinced that the same old process of selling one’s home (e.g. hang a sign in the front yard, putting flyers out, doing open houses, running an ad in the local paper, etc.) with or without an agent is an inadequate strategy in the current market. Allow me to point out some facts about Kenmore today:

• There are currently 204 active, single-family-homes listed with the multiple service. This inventory number has not changed for months. By the way, this is a lot of houses for sale in a town the size of Kenmore.
• Only 18 homes sold in Kenmore in the month of September. 50% of these homes sold for 90% of their listed price. Most of these homes took upwards of 6 months to sell.
• BIG FACT: 53 of the active listings have entered the market in the last 30 days.
• LARGER FACT: Only 50% of these new homes are actually new listings. The other 50% have been listed more than once. In some instances they have been listed three or four times often with different real estate agents.
• UGLY FACT: Many of these homes have been on the market a long time (sometimes well over a year) and they’ve gone through numerous price reductions.
• SIMPLE FACT: THE OWNERS AND AGENTS NEED A NEW STRATEGY OR GET OUT OF THE MARKET. WE NEED TO MAKE REAL ESTATE A NO-DELUSION ZONE.

Dear reader, please pardon my candor but both the real estate agents and the sellers are at fault. Most of the homes now languishing on the market were overpriced when they first hit the market. The market has been in decline for a year now, so there was no excuse for the inflated prices. Sellers were living a delusion and the agents were still in a “listing-equals-an-easy-paycheck” mode. I think Ardell DellaLoggia, the gran dame of Rain City Guide hit the nail right on the head in her recent blogpost entitled “This is time for serious people“:

“It is not enough in this market to have “heart” or to “care about your clients”.  Serious times call for serious leaders, and we are the leaders on the ground in the everyday real estate transaction.”

In upcoming posts I am going to deconstruct this real estate process so you can better understand why many of the criticisms of the real estate industry are true and how to look at the sale of real property in a way that fits our current circumstances.

Brain by Gaetan Lee

September 2008 Month-End Statistics: King Co., Snohomish Co. and Puget Sound Numbers

Statistics from September are beginning to pour out from the local listing service and other sources. There have also been a number of local journalists reporting on the King County market. Generally, the industry spin is quasi-positive in that we saw a 4.18% increase over last September (2295 in 2008 vs 2203 in 2007). I believe the absorption rates tell the real story. Below you will find absorption rate charts for King Co., Snohomish Co., and the whole Puget Sound. Just click on the charts to see the full charts:

KING COUNTY

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

PUGET SOUND

It’s apparent that sales have been flat for many months now. We did see a slight drop in inventory; however, the absorption rates have been hovering around 15% in King Co. and 11% in Snohomish County. The four-county, Puget Sound numbers are also around 11%.

My real estate instincts tell me that we won’t see much of an upward trend in the housing market until next near. The bailout legislation is going to take a while to show results (if any) and the election has been consuming the public. I’ve been speaking with a lot of home owners these days who are worried about the value of their homes. My professional real estate agent advice right now is to to stay put unless you must move. I’ve always told my clients not to think of their home as an investment. One must take a long-term perspective: enjoy your home, raise your children there, make it a place of your own.

Insatiable Curosity: A Realtors Biggest Headache!!!

Ouch! Being curious can be very interesting but it can also hurt my brain. At the beginning of each month I like to ponder local real estate statistics. Because my practice focuses on North King and South Snohomish Counties, I spend time thin-slicing some of the general numbers to try and find out what’s really going on out there in the marketplace. Today I wanted to look at the September sales figures for King County. I think you’ll find this interesting:

Of the 1283 single family homes that sold in September, it’s interesting to note that the average days-on-market is 72 days. Frankly, I find this quite positive in very difficult times. If I were a betting man, I’d say these sellers and their agents did a good job of gaging the market. In order to examine this more closely, I chose to focus-in on those homes that sold from $400,000 - $449,999. I did this because the price is close to average for King County. This particular price-point sold in 64 days which, even in a good market, is a respectable number. So what happened? Here are some details:

1) Only 57% of the homes in this category actually sold in the 64-day time period. 84% of the remaining 43% took well over 100 days to sell.

2) Only 6% (25) of the 1283 sales sold for 100% of the list price. On average, homes sold for 94% of list price. 25 of the homes sold for under 90% of list price.

3) A surprising 95% of the sold homes were re-sale.

Based on these findings, I believe it’s more important than ever for homeowners to think carefully about selling their homes in the current market. There is obviously a group of buyers out there who have money to purchase a home. How you go about pricing and marketing your home are extremely important. Also, if you choose a real estate agent to help you sell your home, make sure he/she knows your local market. Make sure he/she has a concrete plan to “correctly” market your home. Finally, make sure the potential agent has your best interests in mind.

Insatiable Curosity: A Realtor’s Most Important Asset

 I’m one of those guys who is curious about almost everything. When it comes to my reading list I’m usually plowing through 3 or 4 non-fiction books, several magazines and a huge number of publications from my Google Reader. I like to stay informed. It’s a big part of my job as a real estate agent and, believe me, one can never keep up with the mountain of information out there. I thought it might be fun to show you how I go about the process of formulating some of my professional opinions about the real estate market. Let’s take the current financial meltdown as an example. There are a lot of economists claiming that the one commodity most needed in the market today is ”confidence.” I don’t disagree with this idea, but how do I articulate the notion with some facts my clients can understand? Here’s how I research subjects like this:1) I first went to Inman News which is an excellent source of information. There I found an article entitled “ Divided views on homeownership benefits” which points out that a large percentage of both home owners and non-homeowners intend to stay in their current residences for the next 12 months because of the turmoil in the marketplace. If you want to read the whole, fascinating article click on the picture below:You’ll notice that this article has a link to a survey (highlighted). This survey is entitled ”Financial Mortgage Fallout Creating ’Crisis of Confidence’ Among Home Buyers“ and was compiled by Trulia which is one of the most comprehensive, well-respected real estate websites today. The article is an enlightening and somewhat disturbing assessment of homeowner confidence in the current market. Click on the picture to read the whole article. Once I read these articles, I can then pass on relevant information to my neighbors here in Kenmore, WA. As it turns out, most Americans still believe in home ownership but many buyers are putting their home search on hold until the economy settles down. I believe that knowing these facts makes me a better realtor and helps me serve my clients in an intelligent way. 

Kenmore Statistics: Sales Figures from September

It’s October 1st and we are quickly coming to the end of a tumultuous year in real estate. September wasn’t exactly an active month for the sale of single family homes in Kenmore. I ran reports for the sales from this year and September of 2007. Sales were down -55%: 18 homes sales in 2007 and 10 this year.

Here are the sales from last month:

Several key statistics are of note: 1) even though the report showas a 100.14 Sale Price/List Price ratio, the actual number is more like 94% and, 2) days-on-market are 138. Compare this to last year:

You’ll note that the days-on-market were only 49 last September. The Sale Price vs List Price ratio was slightly higher at 97%. One bright spot is the fact that the median prices rose slightly from last year.

The real challenge facing the market today is the inability of buyers to obtain financing due to the severe tightening of credit. We may see this trend continue until Congress passes the current bailout legislation.

New Construction Numbers in Kenmore, WA - Resale Is Doing Much Better

It should be no surprise that new homes (those built in 2008) have not been selling at the brisk pace of several years ago. Far from it. Since January 1, 2008, twenty-five (25) newly constructed homes have sold in Kenmore.  Resale has been doing much better at 101 sales. 50% of these homes sold for under $500,000. All of the new homes sold for over $500,000. I believe that the current market trumoil is taking its toll on home sales in general; however, I also think that new construction is facing some tough competitioin from the resale market. There are almost 2-times as many resale properties on the market right now. They are selling for about 8% less than original list price which means those sellers are being more flexible in their negotiations.

Overall, sales of new homes has been lethargic. Please turn your attention to the charts below:

As the turmoil in Wall Street unfolds and we move into the 4th quarter and Presidential elections, I wonder how the real estate market will fair? Properties are selling in Kenmore in the face of some fairly scary economic times, so it’s not the end of the world…yet. The important thing to recognize is that you should do your homework before jumping into (or out of) the real estate market.

Real Estate Statistics: September is Ending Soon

It’s always sobering to take a look at things going on in your own neighborhood, especially when so much attention has been focused on the “big picture” market challenges. Let’s take a moment observe what’s going on here in Kenmore:

There are a lot of active listings in Kenmore today. The majority of these homes are selling at the  $450,000 - $600,000 price point. Of the 214 active listings, over 70% have reduced the list price. The average days-on-market don’t look terribly bad; however, since the beginning of September there have only been 5 closed sales. Some good news is that there are 26 pending sales; however, most of these homes have only gone pending after well over 5 months on the market. Let’s hope some of them close at the end of this month.

The charts below are sobering:

I’ve expanded the report below so you can see the details.

The numbers speak for themselves. Almost 36% of the homes for sale in Kenmore are new construction. The average days-on-market are running close to 200. As I mentioned above, very few of the pending sales right now received offers quickly. It’s taking a long time to sell a house in Kenmore.