Kenmore Undressed

Stay Inspired with Edward R. Murrow’s “This I Believe”

What do you believe? I don’t mean your religious dogma. If you could express your most powerfully held individual beliefs derived from your experiences and motivations in life, what would you tell the world? How would you do this? Read further for an answer: 

In 2005 one of the most inspiring and insightful radio programs of the last century was revived by two producers connected with National Public Radio, Dan Gediman and Jay Allison. This I Believe was created by Edward R. Murrow and was broadcast on CBS Radio from 1951-1955. The show featured five-minute essays by both famous and regular folks read over the air and broadcast on many CBS stations, on the Voice of America and on the U.S. Armed Forces Network to over 97 foreign countries. Over the years, several print versions of the essays were published (see Wikipedia for more details).Edward R. Murrow claims to have been motivated to create the series for “obvious reasons:” …the uncertainty of the economic future, the shadow of war, the atom bomb, army service for one’s self or loved ones, the frustration of young people facing the future. To illustrate the power of these short three-minute essays I’ve included one of my favorite segments. Click on the photo below to hear the reader’s voice and read his words:

I am not a “spiritual” person which disturbs one of my good friends. One day he asked me, exasperated, “James, what do you turn to when you feel despair or pain? You must have a something to turn to!” The fact is, I find solace in knowing that the human experience is crafted by humans, for better or worse. There is freedom in knowing that, ultimately, we must face reality with courage, insatiable curiosity and laughter. Our job as human beings is to create a better world, here and now for the living not the dead.If you want to learn more about THIS I BELIEVE, just click on the picture below. I’m positive you will find many an essay that will inspire and move you:

Reflections of a Blogger and Realtor on Election Week

We elected a new President on Tuesday. It sounds so simple, yet, it’s the single most important right we have in America. This week brought about a huge shift in our awareness as a nation and as a people. Unless you’re a dead stone, it’s impossible to ignore the renewed sense of connection with our culture and politics. For the first time in many years a sense of hope pushed aside the angst and uncertainty that has permeated our society in the midst of war, financial collapse and indifference. And yet, you and I both know that we face huge challenges in the coming years.

My industry, which is at the heart of the financial crisis, has suffered greatly this last year. Many of my colleagues have left the real estate business. Several have had to file for bankruptcy. There’s been a lot of hurt. Property values have eroded and many families are living with a sense of anxiety that they could loose their homes. This is the dark side of our current events. My most sincere hope is that the new leadership of this great country has the courage and resilience to bring us together to accomplish extraordinary things.

And one final thought: During my recent trip to Italy, my cousins were very curious about our election in the US. “Who are you going to vote for?” “Do you think a black man can win the election?” They seemed more interested in our election than many Americans I know.  Then one night, after a particularly delicious meal, we had a little debate over the candidates. Some felt that John McCain was a good man but that he represented the current administration (they are not fond of Mr. Bush). Others hoped that Barak Obama would win. Then one of my relatives said  if Barak Obama became President, it would mean so much to Italians. It would mean that the American dream is true. It would mean that all the struggles over race were worth it. It would mean that American was truly unique. Frankly, I wondered why they would care so much. I mean, how many Americans really follow Italian or Eurpoean politics? Here’s the point: WHAT WE DO HERE, IN AMERICA, IS IMPORTANT. IT MATTERS. We are looked-upon as a great nation. Our trajectory affects the world. Our example inspires and, sometimes, angers the rest of the world. This week made me reflect deeply about who we are and I have to say that I’m proud that we rejected the cynicism, avarice and narcissism that has gripped our leaders for so long now. America is about renewal, it’s about re-invention and, most of all, it’s about creating a better future. Let’s be the change we hope for. Let’s live it. Let’s make it happen. YES WE CAN!

Founding Fathers Pic by INeedCoffee    Lighthouse pic by RebelBlueAngle  Barak pic by blvsboy

Kenmore Village Update: Financial Markets Affect Construction

Global financial problems manifest themselves in many ways. Here in Kenmore, we are not immune to the current challenges. An important example is this week’s Kenmore City Council meeting on November 3rd.  Kenmoreblog.net reported on this meeting and wrote that Urban Partners, the development firm for the future Kenmore Village, asked the Kenmore City Council for a one year extension to close on the first phase of development. This extension could be as late as 2010.

According to Dan Rosenfeld, an Urban Partners Principal, there are two main reasons for the exension: 1) frozen credit markets and 2) the reluctance of specialty grocers to commit to new locations. Everyone is feeling the pressures of the fragile financial markets.It is reassuring to note that Mr. Rosenfeld reiterated his commitment to the project and that the project fundamentals were still in place.  The City Council directed the city staff to prepare a 90 day extension in order to allow time for a public hearing to consider Mr. Rosenfeld’s request.  

Where to Vote in Kenmore, WA………Get Out There!

 If you haven’t yet voted, or you don’t know where to vote, here is a list of polling places in Kenmore, WA. If you have other questions, just click on the list below to be referred to the King County Election Site:

Avoid Public Embarassment: Set Up an RSS Reader and Stay Informed!

Sara Palin’s ill-fated interview with Katie Couric has been beaten to death by the pundits, comics and the press. One of the most embarrassing moments for Mrs. Palin was when she was asked about what publications she read to keep up with current events. As you know, she was unable to name any. Arguably, this was a disaster for her reputation. She seemed uninformed or, worse yet, apathetic.  In her defense, it’s obvious that her handlers failed to prepare her properly for the interview. What VP candidate would have allowed an interview with the press without reviewing the questions prior to the event? 

But my point here is not to belittle Sara Palin. My point is that she could have avoided this whole situation had she simply set up a Google RSS Reader! Yes, dear friends, she would have come across as a well-educated, thoughtful and “hip” Vice Presidential candidate had she simply said: ”Why Katie, I’m glad you asked me that. I happen to have an RSS Reader in Google and I keep up with 20 publications each day. The best thing is, I don’t have to spend hours doing it!” 

So, what is an RSS Reader and how do you set one up? Let me explain. On most Internet sites you will see this icon. Please click on it to watch a short explanation of RSS Readers:

RSS or REAL SIMPLE SYNDICATION refers to an Internet formatting technology that allows you to retrieve content from your favorite on-line publications, blogs or websites and to display them in your “reader.” This way you can create a dynamic “current events” platform to read about any or all of your interests. There are a several RSS feeders out there. I’m going to show you how to set up a Google Reader. Are you ready?

1) You need to create a Gmail email account. Just go to www.google.com and set up your address.

2) Next, select the “more” drop down menu and then select “reader:”

3) You’ll then click on the “add subscription” icon……….

Which opens up the address box and asks you for the address:

4) I like to use the Seattle Times website as an example because the RSS icon is easily found at the top of the page as depicted below. Now, click on the icon which will bring you to a page that displays RSS feeds for many different categories:

In our example, I’ve selected Food & Wine as one of my favorite subjects. Of course, as a Realtor (c) I’ve selected the RSS feed for real estate articles. The beauty of this system is that you can select any Internet publications (with feeds) to provide you with up-to-date information about virtually anything.

5) To acquire the address of the Food & Wine feed, simply right-click the subject. This will bring up a window with a URL address. Copy this address and then paste it into the reader:

Presto! You’ve now set up a direct feed from the Seattle Times which will place all the Food & Wine articles right into your reader. This is really cool! I do have some advice: Don’t put too many feeds in. I have about 20 publications in my reader. If I don’t purge articles for a couple of days, the reader may produce 700-800 articles.

I’ve met a few people who question the value of an RSS reader claiming that they don’t have enough time in the day as it is. My answer is that using an RSS feed allows one to stay informed in an increasingly complicated world by allowing the reader to select subjects in an orgainzed, concentrated way. You spend less time looking through magazines and websites and get right to the heart of the matter. Give it a try, what have you got to lose?

Picture courtesy of roque9

Preliminary End-of-Month Numbers for Kenmore: Home Sales Slow

October home sales in Kenmore were simply dismal. This wasn’t unexpected given the downward trend this year. One positive trend was the modest drop in inventory:

As you can see from the chart above, the inventory of homes has dropped to 176. Generally, we have seen an inventory hovering around or above 200. Some of this reduction has been due to sales; however, the majority of homes left the market as cancellations or expired listings. The current economic conditions in the financial markets have slowed home sales significantly. I would like you to consider the following:

• Sold homes: Only 13 homes sold in Kenmore last month. Average days-on-market were 152. These homes sold at 93% of the original list price.
• Pending Sales: Pending sales in October were equally as lethargic. Only 18 homes went pending in October. These homes are pending at 92% of their original list prices. Here’s a disturbing fact about this category: 39% of these homes are either bank-owned or short sales. Basically, they represent what may be a growing trend in home sales as we approach 2009.

As November rolls out, we should see more data regarding sales in the region as a whole. I think there are a lot of Americans who are holding their breath, awaiting the results of the Presidential election. Also, I’m waiting to see how the lending institutions proceed with the huge lump of cash the American people dumped in their coffers. Already there are concerns that they have been less-than-candid about their intentions to actually LEND this money.

I don’t generally do this but, I would encourage you to call me if you have any intention of buying or selling real estate in the near future. In today’s market, you need to plan carefully with a professional team committed to your success. Please don’t hesitate to contact me at 206.713.2102 if you have any questions.

Delusion Comes in Many Forms: Facing Facts Can Be Difficult

I spoke with the Broker of a fairly large real estate brokerage the other day. She is one of those consumate optimists (don’t you just hate those people?), but even she has been shaken by the current real estate market. “The phones aren’t ringing,” she said. “It’s awfully quite out there. I’m worried.” 

The truth is, she should be worried. The deteriorating economy and upcoming election have had a chilling effect on home sales both here and nationwide. It has been rough for sellers and their agents. Buyers are also facing difficult lending challenges. What amazes me is that a lot of people out there have not come to terms with reality. Here are two perfect examples:

NUMBER 1: THE REALTOR WITHOUT A CLUE

I’m a contributor to a Real Estate Blog called Active Rain. Over 100,000 agents write blog posts on this site. Yesterday, I read a particularly interesting blog by an agent who was asking if she should take a listing knowing full-well that the seller was unrealistic about the price (way too high) and the seller didn’t even want a sign on the property. She rationalized that they might get lucky and sell the home (even though the home has been previously listed ), or that her virtual tour would attract the right buyer or this listing might generate residual business for her because “she’ll do a great job!”  The fun part was reading almost 70 comments telling her that it’s ridiculous to take an overpriced listing (no matter what the market conditions are). From her response to the comments, I have a strong sense that she’s going to take the listing knowing full-well that she is not doing her clients any favors. This is why our industry has earned such a bad reputation and why this downturn may very well be a good thing. It’s going to eliminate the non-professionals……but:

2) HOMEOWNERS ARE DELUDING THEMSELVES AS WELL

Zillow, one of the most popular Internet home value sites published some interesting findings regarding home owner expectations in the current market. Zillow indicated in their Homeowner Confidence Survey that there exists a perception-reality gap. Quote: “Despite the turbulent quarter, half of U.S homeowners do not think their home’s value has decreased. In reality, nearly three-quarters of homes lost value in the past 12 months.”

The bottom line is that we all need to step back and take a cold, hard look at reality. I recognize that every home transaction is unique but we all need to be guided by the core values of honesty, fair-play and professionalism in order to protect our clients.

Yesterday the Fed Lowers Interest Rates, Today 30-Year Mortgages are More Expensive

Yesterday I wrote a brief piece on the .5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the hopes of explaining how this impacts us regular folks. As I was writing the piece one of my colleagues looked over my shoulder and said, “You know, it seems that every time the Fed lowers interest rates for the banks, the interest rates on mortgages bump up. Why is that?” Well, in theory, there should be, over a period of time, a lowering of interest rates on consumer loans as a result of the Fed’s actions, but today mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.46 percent this week, up from 6.04 percent last week. The sharp increase pushed 30-year rates to the highest level since the week of Oct. 16.

Today, the Seattle Times offers an excellent article explaining why this happened:

“Analysts attributed the increase to the impact the financial crisis is having on bond markets. The upheavals on Wall Street last month drove investors to the  safety of Treasury securities. Now that the panic is easing a bit, investors are moving out of Treasury bonds into other investments. That movement means less demand for Treasury securities, pushing their yields higher. That increase drives up rates for mortgages linked to those investments.”

Even though interest rates are still under 7% (which is historically low), this increase isn’t helping sell homes. Let’s hope that things settle down after the election.

The Central Bank Cuts the Federal Funds Rate: What does this mean?

The Federal Reserve again lowered a key interest rate by .5% to 1%. This interest rate is called the “federal funds rate” which is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans. From an historical perspective, this rate has not been lower since 1958 and represents an aggressive move by the Fed to restore confidence in the market and stimulate banks to make loans.  

But here’s an important question: What impact does this interest rate cut have on the consumer’s mortgage rates, credit card interest or other loans? Does a reduction in this rate matter? Will home owners in Seattle, Kenmore or New York City be able to get a better rate on their mortgages? Well, the short answer is yes. In the long-term the theory is that lowering this interest rate exerts downward pressure on the whole economic system resulting in lower consumer interest rates.  I have a colleague who has a degree in economics to whom I posed this question. He confirmed that the overall strategy of the Fed lowering the rate is intended to stimulate lending. He said there’s a fancy economics term called the velocity of money that applies here. However, he believes the the Fed is lowering the rates because there is a total lack of confidence and trust between the large lending institutions. ”It’s really about psychology,” he said. My friend also said something I think is critical: “If a consumer has good credit and the right amount of cash, they can still buy a house even in the current economy!”

So what does this all mean? The Federal Reserve has a number of “tools” to help influence banks and stimulate lending. Today they sent a clear message that action is needed and they will be monitoring the results of the interest rate cut. Let’s see what happens.

A special note: I am not an economist.

A Schizophrenic Day: Home Prices Down, Stock Market Up, Confidence Way Down!

It was an amazingly confusing day today in the world of economics and real estate. The Seattle PI reported that Seattle-area house values continue to drop, falling 8.8% since last August. Nationally, the numbers are sobering: a 30.7% decline in Phoenix, 30.6% in Las Vegas, the LA, San Fransisco & San Diego markets down 25% and Miami & Tampa down 28.1 & 18.1% respectively.  

There were numerous reports of a huge decline in consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence is one of those economic indices that analysts watch carefully because the majority of our economy is driven by consumer spending. According to a report by marketwatch.com “the implosion of the housing bubble, the weak job market, the bailout of the banks, and the sell-off in the stock markets have put consumer in a sour mood.” This could a problem as we approach the Christmas shopping season. Already, many retailers are bracing for chilly sales.

Then, just when I was getting depressed, PricewaterhouseCoopers announced that among major metropolitan areas, Seattle’s real estate market is the best in the nation as a prospective investment.

THEN, the Stock Market closed up almost 900 points! Whew……….I am reminded of the old curse: May you live in interesting times!

Picture by MrJuggles